The numbers projected Bailey Edwards to be a contributor.
A 3-star prospect out of Chelsea high school in southeast Michigan according to 247Sports, Edwards was the second highest recruit in the class of 2016, the best group gathered by former coach John Bonamego.
That group will go down as one of the better classes in recent memory, featuring a two-time 1,000 yard rusher in Jonathan Ward, one of the best tight ends in the Mid-American Conference in Tony Poljan, Tommy Lazzaro, a JUCO quarterback that will be remembered for his fearless leadership, and several key contributors on the defensive side of the ball.
All that and Bailey Edwards, who entered the transfer portal last week. The numbers show him as a player who played in 27 games, had six carries for 15 yards and caught two passes for five. When the ratings were finalized in 2016, only Poljan was ranked higher than Edwards according to 247Sports.
It's an example of the inexact science that is recruiting analysis. There are many experts out there who pour their valuable time into analyzing these prospective collegiate athletes and the talent they bring to the table. And while these experts know their stuff when it comes to evaluating talent, their overall production at the next level can be predicted only by the environment they enter and how well it is tailored to their skill set.
Edwards entered a receiver room that was very upperclassmen heavy. Names such as Corey Willis and Mark Chapman preceded him, with a bright future ahead of him. However, myriad circumstances drove Edwards down the depth chart.
His best chance to assert himself was in 2018, on a squad that finished 1-11 with little production from the receiver position, however he played in just five games that year. The following season saw the emergence of Virginia Tech transfer Kalil Pimpleton and junior JaCorey Sullivan, along with an early burst from freshman Tyrone Scott.
With all three returning, plus a talented crop of speedy wideouts coming to CMU in coach Jim McElwain's class of 2020, Edwards is jumping ship likely in search of a fresh start and an opportunity for more playing time.
The stars attatched to a recruit's name reflect the talent that they have and the potential they have based on opinions from experts across the country. While talent can be evaluated and assessed from very early on, production is unpredictable until you take into account scheme fit.
Take Michigan's Shea Patterson, a 5-star prize that had colleges chomping at the bit for his services. Patterson showed flashes at Ole Miss, transferred to Michigan after a scandal rocked the Rebel's program, and was left scouring for NFL offers after flaming out in his senior season.
On the flip side, there's Sean Murphy-Bunting. Known as Sean Bunting at the time, the native of Chippewa Valley high school had no scholarship, no picture, no rating and no stars on 247Sports. He bet on himself and chose a grayshirt opportunity at Central Michigan in 2015.
Four years later, Murphy-Bunting heard his name called early on the second day of the 2019 NFL Draft and enjoyed an affluent rookie season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That's the struggle with recruiting analysis. The experts are full of knowledge when it comes to gauging talent, athletic ability and work ethic. They spend hours watching these high school athletes compete and perform at camps and clinics and formulate educated opinions at where they rank among the peers in their respective grade levels.
However, it's impossible to gauge what a player will do at the collegiate level while they're still donning their high school uniform. Coaching staffs, schemes, injuries, and yes, sometimes even grades will dictate that.
It's likely that there is a phenom out there, waiting in the wings without a high ranking for his time to shine. What's unlikely is that anyone, including maybe even that person himself, knows it yet.
It's all part of an inexact science.
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